Cathie Wood-led asset manager ARK Invest has revised its Bitcoin price targets for 2030, boosting its “bull case” to $2.4 million from $1.5 million. The “bear” and “base” case scenarios were also raised to $500,000 and $1.2 million, respectively, according to a report by ARK’s David Puell on April 24.
These adjustments follow an earlier revision in February when the predictions were set at $300,000 and $710,000.
2030 Bitcoin Bull Case
The latest forecasts are based on assumptions regarding total addressable markets (TAMs) and Bitcoin adoption.
According to the report , institutional investment plays the largest role in ARK’s bull case, with Bitcoin potentially capturing 6.5% of a projected $200 trillion global investment portfolio market by 2030. This estimate is nearly double gold’s current 3.6% portfolio share.
In more conservative scenarios, ARK assumes 1% to 2.5% adoption, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s long-term outlook remains strong even with modest institutional interest.
The report highlights the “digital gold” narrative as a key driver of adoption, assuming BTC will compete with gold’s market value without factoring in further growth for the yellow metal.
Bitcoin’s Multi-Faceted Growth Path
In emerging markets, ARK said it sees a significant opportunity for Bitcoin to serve as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, thanks to its accessibility for populations with internet access.
Nation-state adoption, currently led by countries like El Salvador and Bhutan , could accelerate, especially with policy endorsements such as US President Donald Trump’s March 2024 executive order supporting a US Bitcoin reserve .
On the corporate side, ARK noted a rising number of publicly traded firms holding the cryptocurrency, inspired by American business intelligence firm Strategy’s well-known investment game plan. As of late 2024, 74 companies had accumulated roughly $55 billion in Bitcoin.
Finally, ARK even went on to point to on-chain financial services, such as the Lightning Network and wrapped Bitcoin applications, as a fast-growing sector that could further boost BTC’s capital appeal.
