Surge in Bitcoin Whale Activity: Is a Sell-Off Looming?

Key Points

• The Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) for Bitcoin has surged past 0.6, indicating increased large-holder activity on exchanges.
• Despite the recent 20% correction, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio suggests the market remains profitable.

The Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR), a key metric for Bitcoin, has reached its highest level in months, signaling a resurgence of significant whale activity. This has raised concerns about potential selling pressure in the market.

CryptoQuant reports that the EWR has surged past 0.6, a level at which large holders typically distribute their holdings. This is often interpreted as a sign of forthcoming selling pressure.

Exchange Whale Ratio and Bitcoin Activity

Bitcoin peaked at an all-time high of $106,128 on December 17th. Since then, it has experienced a correction phase, dropping by approximately 20% to $84,619 as of March 23rd. This pullback coincides with several sharp EWR spikes, particularly in late 2024 and March 2025.

During Bitcoin’s rise from $55,000 to over $100,000, the EWR increased as the price rallied. While whale inflows did not peak at the exact price top, they did increase steadily ahead of it, suggesting early profit-taking.

Who’s Moving the Money?

Data shows a shift in exchange netflows from bullish outflows to signs of redistribution. Between April and October 2024, monthly outflows typically ranged from 30,000 to 60,000 BTC. However, this trend began to change in Q4.

For instance, net inflows surged to +7,033 BTC as Bitcoin neared $68,000 on November 24th. Despite the price continuing to rally, this inflow suggested early movers were taking profits.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio provides further insight into the overall market sentiment. This ratio, which measures unrealized gains within the network, climbed from 0.442 to 0.627 between August and December 2024. This reflected widespread profits and fueled Bitcoin’s rally.

By March 2025, the NUPL had declined to 0.480, surpassing a 21% price drop with a 23.4% decrease. This suggests the market remains profitable but has entered a phase of realization.

Despite the recent pullback, the metric continues to stay above bearish territory, indicating that the market remains profitable overall.

Whales are shifting assets, profit-taking is underway, and volatility persists. However, with the NUPL still in profit and netflows stabilizing, the market appears to be maintaining its position—carefully balanced between distribution and resilience.