Prediction market Polymarket is betting on a 56% chance of Trump winning the election, nearly 22 points ahead of Biden

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has a 56 percent chance of winning the election, nearly 22 percentage points ahead of incumbent President Joe Biden, according to data from bettors with non-U.S. IP addresses on the crypto prediction marketplace Polymarket (which agreed to IP-block U.S. users as part of a settlement with the CFTC). By contrast, FiveThirtyEight's polling summary shows Trump leading Biden by just one percentage point. On the more traditional prediction market platform PredictIt, which is denominated in US dollars, Trump leads 50-45: still a bigger gap than the FiveThirtyEight poll, but nowhere near the gap on the Polymarket platform.