Pirrational KursPi

Pi Coin (PI) has maintained only 1% of its monthly gains, with a recent price dip signaling renewed weakness. While retail dip-buying is present, critical indicators suggest informed traders are not supporting the move, making a break to the downside highly probable. I. On-Chain Metrics Indicating Smart Money Warning Multiple technical indicators show a disconnect between retail buying and "smart money" positioning: Money Flow Index (MFI) — Dip-Buying Exists: The MFI has been rising, confirming that dip-buying exists and investor interest is present during pullbacks. However, MFI is making lower lows while the price makes higher lows, a bearish divergence that signals the buying pressure is weak. On-Balance Volume (OBV) — Weak Volume Support: The OBV broke below its rising trendline from October 22. This breakdown shows that, despite the existing dip-buying, buyers are not strong enough to lift the market with sustained volume. Smart Money Index (SMI) — Bearish Expectation: The SMI is drifting away from its signal line. This suggests that the more informed group of traders is not betting on a strong rebound and expects the next price move to break lower. II. Critical Price Level for a Rebound The immediate outlook is bearish, but a key level must be reclaimed to invalidate the downward forecast: Critical Support (Likely to Fail): PI is sitting near $0.209, a support level with several past reactions. The confluence of weak OBV and bearish SMI suggests this level is likely to break. Rebound Level (Resistance): To invalidate the current bearish sentiment, the price must push and close above $0.236. III. Resulting Bearish Price Forecast The technical setup points to a downside move, with clear targets if support fails: Immediate Downside Risk: Breaking the $0.209 support level confirms the bearish outlook. Bearish Price Targets: If $0.209 breaks, sellers have room to push the price toward $0.192 and potentially as low as $0.153. Bullish Upside: Breaking and holding above $0.236 would open the door to approximately 9% upside toward $0.285. ⚠️ Important Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is derived from public market data and technical analysis. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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