Bitcoin Second Chance KursBTC

Macro analyst Luke Gromen has stated that he will sell off a large portion of his Bitcoin (BTC) holdings between mid-to-late November 2025. Gromen, who has long held an optimistic stance on both Bitcoin and precious metals, sparked a significant debate in the market with this move. In his latest video, published in 2025, Gromen systematically explained the background of this decision for the first time. Gromen specifically stated that his decision did not stem from a loss of long-term faith in Bitcoin. He clarified that he hadn’t completely closed his Bitcoin positions, explaining that the primary reason for the sell-off wasn’t price movements or emotional reactions, but a change in his assessment of “timing.” According to the analyst, the key was accurately assessing which assets become more vulnerable at which stage within the macroeconomic cycle. Gromen admitted that he had long viewed Bitcoin as the “last liquidity alarm” still functioning properly in the global financial system, but that he had misjudged its behavior in a deflationary environment. He said he previously thought Bitcoin would act as a neutral reserve asset during deflationary periods, but in reality, it performed similarly to high-beta tech stocks. He argued that this was not an opinion, but a phenomenon observed in recent years. Related News Developers of Altcoin That Suffered a Major Loss After Being Hacked Issue Statement - What Happens Next? According to the analyst, the main reason for this is that today’s global economy has an extremely leveraged structure. In such a system, assets have to be valued according to their position in the capital structure. When liquidity is abundant and prices are rising, the “equity layer” of the capital structure performs best. However, when deflation begins, this layer takes the biggest hit. Gromen stated that in the current system, Bitcoin effectively resides in this equity layer and therefore becomes more vulnerable during periods of deflation. The key factor that changed Gromen’s perspective was artificial intelligence and robotics. According to the analyst, these technologies create a productivity-driven and “exponential” deflationary pressure independent of demand cycles. This pressure has a rapid and widespread impact on employment, especially among young people. In such an environment, Gromen states that all policies except for “nuclear-level” monetary expansion are effectively creating a tightening effect, and that in the short term, the privileged capital class will feel the most pressure. This is the main reason for his caution regarding Bitcoin. The macro analyst stated that he did not reject Bitcoin, but merely re-evaluated the chronological order. Gromen, who still believes that deflation will inevitably lead to a crisis followed by large-scale monetary interventions, said he thinks this step will come later than he expected. He stated that he assumed policymakers would act quickly, but this did not happen, and that during this process, he preferred to temporarily exit the most vulnerable layer of the capital structure. *This is not investment advice. Follow our Telegram and Twitter account now for exclusive news, analytics and on-chain data!

Bitcoin has reasserted the $90,000 level, a move the market attributes primarily to technical factors rather than a new fundamental catalyst. Analysts say the level, once a defining resistance, has historically tended to trigger short-covering and momentum-driven buying when breached. Kronos Research’s Vincent Liu notes that after a period of consolidation, price action has reconnected with a technical support level, reshaping the prior resistance into a new floor and underpinning near-term upside potential. Bitrue’s Andri Fauzan Adziima argues that the recent ascent reflects technical relief from options expirations dynamics and the broader altcoin dominance correlation. He also notes that ETF outflows totaling over $1 billion tied to tax-loss harvesting and broader de-risking contributed to December market dynamics, with Bitcoin oscillating in a roughly $86,500–$90,000 range.

Bitcoin recently captured attention as it briefly surpassed the $90,000 mark, differentiating itself from past bear cycles with its current market behavior. Moving within an upward narrowing band for weeks, Bitcoin demonstrates absorbed volatility rather than sharp sell-offs. The protection of long-term technical thresholds weakens potential crash scenarios. Market participants believe we are entering a period where traditional bear market patterns do not repeat. Traditional Bear Market Dynamics Fail to Apply Potential Short-Term Scenarios for Bitcoin Traditional Bear Market Dynamics Fail to Apply Historically, Bitcoin followed a similar technical trajectory during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles. In these instances, Bitcoin fell below its 100-week simple and exponential moving averages, followed by sharp declines of 40% to 55% within weeks. These crosses signaled not the beginning, but rather the most destructive phase of the bear market, paving the way for the liquidation of weak players in the market. However, the final weekly close of 2025 defied this tradition. Bitcoin managed to stay above levels lost in past cycles, and a threatening bear cross did not evolve into a selling wave. The lack of a downward momentum indicates the market’s rejection of the expected breakdown. Technically failed bear signals often point to robust underlying demand. This scenario doesn’t confirm a bull market but highlights the invalidation of one of the most significant bearish triggers observed for a long time. The market structure remains balanced without entering the panic selling phase seen in previous cycles. Potential Short-Term Scenarios for Bitcoin A 40% pullback would require Bitcoin to lose several strong support areas consecutively. Dropping below the 100-week averages on a weekly basis and permanent pricing in the recent demand zones are prerequisites for this scenario. Currently, none of these conditions are met. In the short term, momentum indicators signal caution. The breakout of the symmetric triangle formation seen in the four-hour chart propelled the price to the $90,500 region, with RSI and Stochastic RSI entering overbought territory. Increasing selling pressure could push prices below $90,000 again, while around $89,500 emerges as a potential demand area. Conversely, if the price remains above the triangle’s former descending trendline and holds above $90,500, a new range toward $93,000–$93,650 might open. This development could confirm a stronger technical base as we enter 2026. According to data from CryptoAppsy, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,468, reflecting a 2.13% increase over the past 24 hours.

BlockBeats News, December 29th, Presto Research's researcher Rick Maeda stated, "Bitcoin's return above $90,000 is mainly driven by technical factors rather than any single new catalyst. The $90,000 level was a clear resistance level, and once Bitcoin regained its footing, it likely triggered short covering and momentum-driven buying pressure." Kronos Research's Chief Information Officer Vincent Liu also expressed a similar view, stating that Bitcoin rebounded from a period of consolidation at a technical support level, with the "key level now turned back into a support level." Bitrue's Head of Research Andri Fauzan Adziima stated that Bitcoin's upward momentum reflects a technical relief brought by options expirations and the altcoin-led correlation. He also added that over $1 billion in ETF outflows related to tax loss harvesting and broader de-risking weighed on Bitcoin, which in December was "essentially fluctuating within the range of $86,500 to $90,000." (The Block)